Two recent stories on the effect of impending Chinese tariffs paint very different pictures. Two complimenting stories offer better depth.
Today’s anecdotal-led NYT story “Trump’s Tariffs Helped Northern Vietnam Boom Like Never Before. What Now?” strikes a note of cautious optimism for the Vietnamese economy based on an anticipated surge in production to avoid tariffs.
Monday’s more analytical China Global South Project’s “Sorry, Vietnam is NOT Going to Be the “Next China” presents a more sober view. Bylined by Eric Olander is the proposition that the US policy-making community’s expectation that Vietnam will emerge as the next China is delusional. Even with the best US intentions, ‘friend-shoring’ won’t cut the Chinese Goliath out of the tariff-trade equation.
Olander’s argument is that Vietnam’s unemployment rate is just 2.27% limiting the number of available workers. He writes VN doesn’t have either the supply chain or logistics network required to replace China and what’s more, so many of the raw materials used by Vietnamese manufacturing come from its northern neighbor.
Damien Cave’s Times story is more encompassing than Olander’s succinct analysis, but both are well-worth reading to gain a far deeper understanding among the hype, hope, and reality and to appreciate the complex global implications.
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